1. Is it a
best time if we buy/invest now to buy the condo? Please advise.
Investing in investments constitute 2 main components.
Timing & The Product.
A) Timing
Timing is a function of market
cycles. In this aspect, it is like a
passing wave that lifts all ships in an ocean.
It really does not matter what ship you are sailing on, as all the ships
will rise to varying degrees. The point
is, that they will ALL rise.
B) The Product
The Product here pertains mostly to
the opportunity that presents itself at the given point in time, these are
windows that open regardless of the investment climate. Using the same example as the above, of the
whole fleet of ships sailing the high seas, some are better built, better
crewed, faster, and perform better regardless of the sea condition.
These will reach their destinations in good
weather or in stormy seas. A good investment
product works the same way. The window
to own such products opens once every so often.
Once they are missed, the ship has sailed.
2. As
your experience, how is the prospect of property in Singapore in the
future/next year?
The real estate climate for Singapore of the future/next year really is
about:
“Look closely, and the closer you look, the less you will see..”
Property investment is about looking further into the future then the
present.
Why?
Every piece of property is unique and one of a kind, the chance to own
something from a world renown, established and well-conceived product does not
present itself at every turn of the market.
The idea is to hold onto a collector’s piece like this until the market
moves in your favor.
The statistics that we cannot run away from are that we are looking at
planning for a 6.9 million population to have in Singapore. This number is inevitable as it is the
critical mass needed to keep pace with the other leading global cities. The
projected immigration that is expected to push the population up to that number
will lead to a supply shortage in the long haul.
Furthermore, the projected immigrants who will be coming into Singapore
will almost certainly be in the high strata of society.
Aka, the rich and very rich.
Much has been said about Singapore having a higher than proportionate
number of millionaires living within our country. This wealth is widely accepted to have been “transplanted”
from overseas from our migrants and these would inevitably find their way into
real estate one way or another either through direct ownership of property, or
from paying rentals to the property owners.
The current market status shows a pipeline of competed units coming
available on the market in the near term.
However the same report neglects to mention the key statistic that would
impact property pricing, which in this case is the vacancy rate which shows
apartments that do not have tenants.
The fact is that vacancies remain low being that current vacancies
arise from structural recycling of tenants as leases turn over.
Hence the outlook for residential real estate will be robust for the
short through long term.
3. According to my banker and some relatives, now
is the highest price in property and not a good time to buy/invest one. The
price is said to decrease next year. What is your suggestion?
The
concern here is twofold. Firstly it
implies that the cyclical rules apply.
What
cyclical rules mean in this context is that when variable inputs have reached
their limits, each input increase leads to a more than proportionate increase
in costs of production, hence leading to price increases precipitating a price
fall due to a drop in demand.
This
is true given that 1 critical assumption must apply for a cycle to take place.
1. It
must be a closed market whereby no other variable inputs may enter
In global markets today, this critical assumption no longer applies,
people and money move freely across borders, and as such, Singapore’s property
market is one in which we have seen rapid population growth in the last decade,
as well as high rates of foreign investments into Singapore properties. In the last 10 years we have experienced a
population increase from 3 million residents to the current 5 million. This number is set to increase. Given Singapore’s reputed and stable economy,
the migrants who take up residence here inevitably bring their wealth as well.
Second, the expected price decrease is
expected over the next year.
The current spate
of cooling measures is targeted not so much at bringing down prices, but more
so to freeze the market. We in Singapore
have currently seen up to 7 rounds of “cooling measures” and not once did the
prices come down, rather the impact is only on the resale transactions that
have been greatly impacted. There has
been a small reduction in prices over the past few quarters but have we paused
to ask ourselves the nature of these price reductions?
For serious price reductions to occur, there must be 2 critical factors
occurring:
1. A
large spike in Interest Rates. Much has
been said over the past few years about the impending interest rates and that
the low interest rates WILL inevitably increase due to the “interest rate”
cycles. I have noticed that of late,
there has not been any discussion of this in the media by any “experts”. It is as though it is a forgotten episode
that is closed and over. The reality of
it is that, we could be in a liquidity trap whereby interest rates are kept
extremely low for the foreseeable future.
2. Mass unemployment. The other main factor that could lead
property owners to slash prices and see their investments is in a situation
where their primary income source is hit and affects their holding power. In this case, we are economically at a stage
of very low unemployment and it is hard to see a coming economic event that
would lead this trend to reverse.
Furthermore, the majority of property investments are positive cash flow
investments, which means in addition to paying off the interest and mortage,
home owners take home some extra. How
then would prices be forced to drop?
Thus there remains to examine the
nature of the pricing drops.
Why are
these sellers selling at reduced prices?
My view is that the majority of
these sellers are in situations whereby they are forced to
sell. Either by government implemented rules for
example taking possession of HDB BTO or
EC units, or to get ABSD remission on
upgrading their matrimonial homes. These
sellers
have a 6 month window to sell their existing properties, and HAVE to
take the best offer
offered to them. The
second group of sellers that are reducing prices are that of the project
developers. These due to market forces
are inevitable as these are products that are poorly
received by the
market.
Well-conceived products by
established developers are usually well taken up and no price
reductions are
expected thereafter.
Hence taking into consideration the
above, a case be made that the current market is in
a plateau, a respite on
upward trending prices before the sheer weight of demand begins
pushing prices
upwards again even with the current cooling measures in place.
Best Regards,
Mervin Tang
Group Director
Division Lead Trainer, Project Sales
